Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.

Many (if not all) real-world applications require efficient handling of uncertainty and a compact representation of a wide variety of knowledge. Indeed, complex concepts and relationships that typically comprise expert knowledge may be difficult to express in graphical models but can be represented compactly using classical logic.

Shapley values underlie one of the most popular model-agnostic methods within explainable artificial intelligence. These values are designed to attribute the difference between a model's prediction and an average baseline to the different features used as input to the model. Being based on solid game-theoretic principles, Shapley values uniquely satisfy several desirable properties, which is why they are increasingly used to explain the predictions of possibly complex and highly non-linear machine learning models. Shapley values are well calibrated to a user's intuition when features are independent, but may lead to undesirable, counterintuitive explanations when the independence assumption is violated. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for computing Shapley values that generalizes recent work that aims to circumvent the independence assumption. By employing Pearl's do-calculus, we show how these `causal' Shapley values can be derived for general causal graphs without sacrificing any of their desirable properties. Moreover, causal Shapley values enable us to separate the contribution of direct and indirect effects. We provide a practical implementation for computing causal Shapley values based on causal chain graphs when only partial information is available and illustrate their utility on a real-world example.

We study the problem of learning disentangled signals from data using non-linear Independent Component Analysis (ICA). Motivated by advances in self-supervised learning, we propose to learn self-sufficient signals: A recovered signal should be able to reconstruct a missing value of its own from all remaining components without relying on any other signals. We formulate this problem as the minimization of a conditional KL divergence. Compared to traditional maximum likelihood estimation, our algorithm is prior-free and likelihood-free, meaning that we do not need to impose any prior on the original signals or any observational model, which often restricts the model's flexibility. To tackle the KL divergence minimization problem, we propose a sequential algorithm that reduces the KL divergence and learns an optimal de-mixing flow model at each iteration. This approach completely avoids the unstable adversarial training, a common issue in minimizing the KL divergence. Experiments on toy and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our method.

Lyapunov function that directly incorporates both objective progress and delays.

Multi-token prediction (MTP) is a prominent strategy to significantly speed up generation in large language models (LLMs), including byte-level LLMs, which are tokeniser-free but prohibitively slow. However, existing MTP methods often sacrifice expressiveness by assuming independence between future tokens. In this work, we investigate the trade-off between expressiveness and latency in MTP within the framework of probabilistic circuits (PCs). Our framework, named MTPC, allows one to explore different ways to encode the joint distributions over future tokens by selecting different circuit architectures, generalising classical models such as (hierarchical) mixture models, hidden Markov models and tensor networks. We show the efficacy of MTPC by retrofitting existing byte-level LLMs, such as EvaByte. Our experiments show that, when combined with speculative decoding, MTPC significantly speeds up generation compared to MTP with independence assumptions, while guaranteeing to retain the performance of the original verifier LLM. We also rigorously study the optimal trade-off between expressiveness and latency when exploring the possible parameterisations of MTPC, such as PC architectures and partial layer sharing between the verifier and draft LLMs.

Neurosymbolic (NeSy) predictors combine neural perception with symbolic reasoning to solve tasks like visual reasoning. However, standard NeSy predictors assume conditional independence between the symbols they extract, thus limiting their ability to model interactions and uncertainty - often leading to overconfident predictions and poor out-of-distribution generalisation. To overcome the limitations of the independence assumption, we introduce neurosymbolic diffusion models (NeSyDMs), a new class of NeSy predictors that use discrete diffusion to model dependencies between symbols. Our approach reuses the independence assumption from NeSy predictors at each step of the diffusion process, enabling scalable learning while capturing symbol dependencies and uncertainty quantification. Across both synthetic and real-world benchmarks - including high-dimensional visual path planning and rule-based autonomous driving - NeSyDMs achieve state-of-the-art accuracy among NeSy predictors and demonstrate strong calibration.

There has been a historic assumption that the biometrics of an individual are statistically uncorrelated. We test this assumption by training Bi-Encoder networks on three verification tasks, including fingerprint-to-fingerprint matching, iris-to-iris matching, and cross-modal fingerprint-to-iris matching using 274 subjects with $\sim$100k fingerprints and 7k iris images. We trained ResNet-50 and Vision Transformer backbones in Bi-Encoder architectures such that the contrastive loss between images sampled from the same individual is minimized. The iris ResNet architecture reaches 91 ROC AUC score for iris-to-iris matching, providing clear evidence that the left and right irises of an individual are correlated. Fingerprint models reproduce the positive intra-subject suggested by prior work in this space. This is the first work attempting to use Vision Transformers for this matching. Cross-modal matching rises only slightly above chance, which suggests that more data and a more sophisticated pipeline is needed to obtain compelling results. These findings continue challenge independence assumptions of biometrics and we plan to extend this work to other biometrics in the future. Code available: https://github.com/MatthewSo/bio_fingerprints_iris.